Gold "flash collapse" "jump up" back and forth to switch, so that people tired of the supposed?
Gold recent trend is quite "strange", Monday "flash collapse", and suddenly "jump up" on Tuesday. There are two in common: one is in the European market early, two are mysterious big single. Has two consecutive days of such a situation, are everything "fat fingers" it? So that people tired of the supposed? Is the current "bullish" or "bearish"?
Fat fingers "play great, for a while" flash collapse "for a" jump up "
According to the Bloomberg news report, Tuesday (June 27) European market early gold suddenly jumped up, back to 1250 US dollars / ounce. Data show that gold buying in five minutes to about 815,000 ounces, so that gold pulled back most of the decline in Monday, gold in a minute there was 1.8 million ounces of selling.
Gold these two trading days of the strange market, and no news support, before the market that the traders "fat fingers" caused by the error. But has been two consecutive days in the European market early this kind of situation, it seems "fat finger" is not the real main reason. What is the reason, in fact, the current market is not accurate conclusion, as there are rumors that there are rumors that "mysterious characters" in the control, but all this is only "rumors", you can leave to recuperate slowly.
However, from a technical point of view, the recent gold seems to be identified in the 1235 US dollars / ounce area for the long "safe haven", temporary down space is locked, especially in the absence of particularly bad news to stimulate the short break difficult to break the area. But the uplink, or need to step on the editor before many times in the article mentioned in the $ 1253 / ounce to confirm the market outlook will rise further, otherwise, the possibility of short-term violent shock is still very large.
Yale said in the talks that the Fed's policy objective is employment and inflation, although some of the asset prices in terms of traditional measures to see high signs, but not the Fed's monetary policy targets.
She once again expressed a consistent position, that the Fed will gradually increase the rate hike, will also use the progressive and easy way to predict the passive form. She believes that the market should be prepared to face the benchmark interest rate in the long-term lower than the historical average of the environment, from the current performance, the market has already digested the Fed's shortlist of the path is expected, did not produce large fluctuations.
For the Federal Reserve in June to raise interest rates after the continued downturn in inflation data, Yelun reiterated the "low inflation noise" point of view, the Federal Reserve officials believe that the unemployment rate fell to 16 years low will promote inflation uplift, be maintained by the June meeting The hawk stands, but did not expect then "hawks".
Although the Fed's quantitative tightening QT will continue to push up interest rates and put pressure on gold, but Goldman Sachs's product team that the price of gold in the next 12 months target price will stabilize at 1250 US dollars / ounce.
On the one hand because Goldman Sachs judgments, the future of low US stocks will lead investors to more defensive asset allocation; while emerging market GDP growth will continue to increase the purchasing power of emerging economies, so the consumption of gold will also constitute part of the support. In addition, Goldman Sachs also expected gold supply in 2017 will reach its peak.
On the other hand, gold's correlation with global bonds in 2002 was 100% (the correlation between the assets shown below), so the sensitivity of gold to interest rate expectations will also increase. At the same time, as global growth momentum may have reached its peak, gold will be the choice of hedging stock market risk, especially for low-yielding foreign exchange.